UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Washington, USA
7 Dec 2019
Middleweight
VS
83%
Muradov
17%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:09
Makhmud
Makhmud Muradov
26 – 8
6'2"75" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 55
TS
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
15 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'3"
CFR 11

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Muradov

Muradov is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Muradov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Striking split: Muradov throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Smith has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Muradov
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
75"
36+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Muradov
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.1
10.9
49.2
Performance Avg
31.7
38
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
45
Muradov
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
53%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
5
9
Body
3
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
32Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Muradov
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Muradov
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
26
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/34 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Muradov
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Muradov
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Muradov
Smith
Striking6.3 / 0.8Volume5.3 / 8.8Grappling1.2 / 2.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
Muradov
Strike Zones
Smith
Muradov
Attacking
23HEAD9BODY0LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY5LEGS13 absorbed
Smith
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY5LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD9BODY0LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Muradov targets the head (72% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (38% of attacks) — Muradov absorbs 38% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Muradov
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Muradov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.5W5.5W3.8L6.9L4.9W2019-092019-122021-012021-082022-102023-07
WinLossTrend

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.7L4.5W1.5L4.5W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.9L5.0L2013-072014-072016-082018-052019-12
WinLossTrend

Muradov · Last 5

Upcoming
Aliaskhab Khizriev
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Caio BorralhoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
W · KO · R3
Andrew SanchezRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01

Smith · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Andrew SanchezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12

News & Media

Makhmud Muradov · Trevor Smith
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