UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
Houston, USA
12 Feb 2022
Heavyweight
VS
85%
Arlovski
15%
Vanderaa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Andrei
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34 – 24
6'3"77" reachOrthodox47 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 49
JV
Jared Vanderaa
12 – 10
Well-Rounded5-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arlovski

Arlovski is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Arlovski has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Striking split: Vanderaa throws more volume but Arlovski connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Arlovski's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Vanderaa has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Arlovski
Vanderaa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+80"
47
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arlovski
Vanderaa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
8.4
50.5
Performance Avg
20.7
47
Quality of Victory
25
94
Momentum Score
0
Arlovski
Vanderaa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.0
47%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
9 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
11
6
Body
7
1
Leg
10
RangeRange
13Distance21
1Clinch7
0Ground0
Arlovski
Vanderaa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Arlovski
Vanderaa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42/58 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Arlovski
Vanderaa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Arlovski
Vanderaa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
48%
0%
9
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arlovski
Vanderaa
Striking5.0 / 0.3Volume5.3 / 8.3Grappling1.9 / 2.4Wrestling1.4 / 1.7Submission0.9 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 0.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
Arlovski
Strike Zones
Vanderaa
Arlovski
Attacking
7HEAD6BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD7BODY10LEGS28 absorbed
Vanderaa
Attacking
11HEAD7BODY10LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD6BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arlovski targets the head (50% of attacks) — Vanderaa absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Vanderaa targets the head (39% of attacks) — Arlovski absorbs 39% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arlovski
RND
Vanderaa
0/0R00/0

Arlovski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W4.0L4.0L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.6L2.1L2.8L1.9L5.9L4.5W4.5W5.9L5.5L5.7L4.5W2.6L5.2W5.1W5.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W2.1L3.1L7.0L6.5L2000-112006-122017-062021-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Vanderaa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0103.3L6.1W3.5L6.2L1.5L4.0L7.0L2021-022021-102022-042022-10
WinLossTrend

Arlovski · Last 5

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Decision
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Decision
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L · KO · R2
Don'Tale MayesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
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Vanderaa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · KO · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5
Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
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L · KO · R2
Alexandr RomanovRating 3.5
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Andrei Arlovski · Jared Vanderaa
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