UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Miami, USA
11 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
54%
Padilla
46%
Mederos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Chris
Chris Padilla
"Taco"
176
5'9"74" reachOrthodox30 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 71
MarQuel
MarQuel Mederos
111
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak29 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'10"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Padilla

Two unbeaten lightweights collide at UFC 327 in Miami — one fighter's perfect record is about to end.

Very few fights on a card carry the electric charge of two undefeated prospects colliding, and that is exactly what UFC 327's preliminary card delivers. Chris Padilla (17-6) versus MarQuel Mederos (11-1) is the kind of match-up that makes talent evaluators sweat — two men who have built their reputations by never losing, about to discover who really belongs. Padilla, a relentless pressure fighter…

Padilla intel

Padilla entered on a 3-fight winning streak and accepted this fight on short notice, meaning his camp preparation was compressed. His pressure style works best with a full training camp behind it — worth watching whether fatigue becomes a factor in round three.

Mederos intel

Mederos is the younger, faster fighter with the cleaner record. His only loss came against a legitimate contender. His movement off the back foot is elite for a lightweight prospect and his counter right hand is the most dangerous shot in this fight.

Key angles

Padilla's short-notice preparation and whether it affects his trademark conditioning

Mederos keeping his feet moving to deny Padilla's forward pressure

Whether Padilla can establish inside position in round one and disrupt Mederos's rhythm

Clean exchanges on the outside where Mederos holds a clear technical edge

Risk flags

Short-notice preparation for Padilla is genuinely unknown — it could sharpen him or leave him under-prepared

Mederos's footwork is good enough to completely neutralize Padilla's pressure game

Padilla
Mederos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
74"+
Reach
69"
30
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Padilla
Mederos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
60.8
64.2
Performance Avg
55.0
40
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
100
Padilla
Mederos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.2
1.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
62%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
35
11
Body
3
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
32Distance29
11Clinch12
1Ground0
Padilla
Mederos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Padilla
Mederos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Strikes absorbed / min
5/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Padilla
Mederos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Padilla
Mederos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Padilla
Mederos
Striking4.5 / 2.0Volume4.0 / 10.0Grappling2.6 / 2.4Wrestling1.8 / 1.7Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
10.0
Padilla
Strike Zones
Mederos
Padilla
Attacking
28HEAD11BODY5LEGS44 landed
Absorbing
35HEAD3BODY3LEGS41 absorbed
Mederos
Attacking
35HEAD3BODY3LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD11BODY5LEGS44 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Padilla targets the head (64% of attacks) — Mederos absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Mederos targets the head (85% of attacks) — Padilla absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Padilla
RND
Mederos
0/0R00/0

Padilla · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W4.7W5.2W5.6W2024-042024-092025-032025-11
WinLossTrend

Mederos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W2024-022025-032025-06
WinLossTrend

Padilla · Last 5

Upcoming
MarQuel Mederos
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Ismael BonfimRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jai HerbertRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · R2
RongzhuRating 4.7
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Sub · R1
James LlontopRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

Mederos · Last 4

Upcoming
Chris Padilla
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Mark ChoinskiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Landon QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

News & Media

Chris Padilla · MarQuel Mederos
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