UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
21 Oct 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Ankalaev
43%
Walker
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ankalaev
This is a genuine toss-up — Ankalaev at 57% vs Walker at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Walker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Walker throws more volume but Ankalaev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ankalaev's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Walker has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ankalaev
Walker
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'6"
75"
Reach
+82"
33+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ankalaev
Walker
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.0
50.4
59.9
Performance Avg
54.6
43
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
41
Ankalaev
Walker
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.0
59%
Strike Accuracy
59%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.6
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
4
3
Body
1
3
Leg
9
RangeRange
7Distance14
1Clinch0
5Ground0
Ankalaev
Walker
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ankalaev
Walker
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
6
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Ankalaev
Walker
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
41
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
Ankalaev
Walker
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ankalaev
Walker
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.6
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
AnkalaevWalker
Strike Zones
Ankalaev
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedWalker
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ankalaev targets the head (54% of attacks) — Walker absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Walker targets the legs (64% of attacks) — Ankalaev absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ankalaev
RND
Walker
0/0R00/0
Ankalaev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Walker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ankalaev · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alex PereiraRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Alex PereiraRating 6.6Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 4.6Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Johnny WalkerRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Johnny WalkerUFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
Walker · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Dominick ReyesRating 6.5Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Zhang MingyangRating 7.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Volkan OezdemirRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Magomed AnkalaevRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevUFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10