UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
Las Vegas, USA
20 Feb 2021
Featherweight
VS
47%
Rosa
53%
Minner
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CR
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
14 – 8
5'9"69" reachSwitch39 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
DM
Darrick Minner
26 – 14
Well-Rounded3-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Minner

This is a genuine toss-up — Rosa at 47% vs Minner at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Rosa throws more volume but Minner connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Rosa's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Minner has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rosa
Minner
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
69"
39
Age
+36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Rosa
Minner
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
22.0
36.3
Performance Avg
37.0
35
Quality of Victory
40
20
Momentum Score
45
Rosa
Minner
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.6
36%
Strike Accuracy
77%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance5
0Clinch0
7Ground2
Rosa
Minner
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rosa
Minner
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
42
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
6/40 fights
Rosa
Minner
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Rosa
Minner
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rosa
Minner
Striking0.8 / 0.7Volume5.6 / 4.7Grappling4.6 / 5.2Wrestling3.3 / 3.6Submission4.0 / 5.0Pressure4.0 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Rosa
Strike Zones
Minner
Rosa
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Minner
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Minner absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Minner targets the head (71% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rosa
RND
Minner
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5W7.1L4.5W4.0L5.0W6.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.8L5.5L6.3L2014-102017-042021-022022-07
WinLossTrend

Minner · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.2L5.0W4.5W3.2L5.5L1.8L2020-022020-092021-022021-072021-122022-11
WinLossTrend

Rosa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
L · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
W · Dec · R3
Justin JaynesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Darrick MinnerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02

Minner · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Shayilan NuerdanbiekeRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
Ryan HallRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Darren ElkinsRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
W · Sub · R1
TJ LaramieRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

News & Media

Charles Rosa · Darrick Minner
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