METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago, USA
16 Aug 2025
Flyweight
VS
39%
Elliott
61%
Asakura
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:39
★ Official Result
Tim ElliottwinsSubmissionR2 · 4:39
def. Kai Asakura · UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Asakura
→
Actual result
Elliott wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Asakura holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Elliott has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Asakura has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Risk flags
Elliott's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElliottAsakura
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elliott
Asakura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+69"
39
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Elliott
Asakura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.9
58.9
38.0
Performance Avg
54.5
33
Quality of Victory
58
43
Momentum Score
51
Elliott
Asakura
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
8.5
6.5
Style: Volume
1.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
9
1
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Elliott
Asakura
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Elliott
Asakura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/36 fights
Chin rating based on
4/27 fights
Elliott
Asakura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
51
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Elliott
Asakura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elliott
Asakura
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
ElliottAsakura
Strike Zones
Elliott
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedAsakura
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elliott targets the head (82% of attacks) — Asakura absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Asakura targets the head (90% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elliott
RND
Asakura
0/0R00/0
Elliott · Last 5
Upcoming
Edgar ChairezNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegDecision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraSubmission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
Muhammad MokaevSubmission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
Asakura · Last 4
W · KO · R2
AoriqilengKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08
W · KO · R1
Cameron SmothermanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R2
Tim ElliottSubmission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Sub · R2
Alexandre PantojaSubmission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12