UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago, USA
16 Aug 2025
Flyweight
VS
86%
Elliott
14%
Asakura
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Elliott
Elliott is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Elliott has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.
Elliott has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Elliott's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Elliott
Asakura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+69"
39
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Elliott
Asakura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
6.1
37.9
Performance Avg
0.0
33
Quality of Victory
0
43
Momentum Score
0
Elliott
Asakura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
27%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
9
1
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Elliott
Asakura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elliott
Asakura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/36 fights
Chin rating based on
3/27 fights
Elliott
Asakura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Elliott
Asakura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elliott
Asakura
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
ElliottAsakura
Strike Zones
Elliott
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedAsakura
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elliott targets the head (82% of attacks) — Asakura absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Asakura targets the head (90% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elliott
RND
Asakura
0/0R00/0
Elliott · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Asakura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.1WinLossTrend
Elliott · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.2Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 5.4Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
Asakura · Last 3
Upcoming
Cameron SmothermanUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R2
Tim ElliottRating 2.8Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Sub · R2
Alexandre PantojaRating 3.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12