UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Jun 2017
Middleweight
VS
57%
Belfort
43%
Marquardt
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Belfort
This is a genuine toss-up — Belfort at 57% vs Marquardt at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Belfort has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Belfort throws more volume but Marquardt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Belfort's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Marquardt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Belfort
Marquardt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
49
Age
+47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Belfort
Marquardt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.9
16.8
59.2
Performance Avg
48.6
59
Quality of Victory
46
91
Momentum Score
59
Belfort
Marquardt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
52%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
11 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
10
4
Body
5
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
14Distance19
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Belfort
Marquardt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Belfort
Marquardt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/40 fights
Chin rating based on
25/54 fights
Belfort
Marquardt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
59
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Belfort
Marquardt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
87%
69%
11
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Belfort
Marquardt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
1.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
BelfortMarquardt
Strike Zones
Belfort
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedMarquardt
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Belfort targets the head (78% of attacks) — Marquardt absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Marquardt targets the head (50% of attacks) — Belfort absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Belfort
RND
Marquardt
0/0R00/0
Belfort · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Marquardt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Belfort · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Lyoto MachidaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 4.5Decision
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
Upcoming
Kelvin GastelumUFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · KO · R2
Gegard MousasiRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Jacare SouzaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05
Marquardt · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Vitor BelfortRating 5.5Decision
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
W · KO · R2
Tamdan McCroryRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05