METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Welterweight
VS
46%
Burns
54%
Thompson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Gilbert BurnswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Stephen Thompson · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Thompson
→
Actual result
Burns wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Burns at 46% vs Thompson at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BurnsThompson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Burns
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+75"
40+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
46.3
48.1
Performance Avg
48.9
40
Quality of Victory
43
28
Momentum Score
45
Burns
Thompson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
5.5
Style: Pressure
5.2
4.9
Style: Volume
5.1
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance7
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Burns
Thompson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burns
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
Burns
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
45
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Burns
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
5
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Thompson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
BurnsThompson
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedThompson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (82% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaKO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadDecision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyKO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovSubmission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12