UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Welterweight
VS
46%
Burns
54%
Thompson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Gilbert
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22 – 10
5'10"71" reachOrthodox39 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
Stephen
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thompson

This is a genuine toss-up — Burns at 46% vs Thompson at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Thompson throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Burns
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+75"
39+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
46.3
48.1
Performance Avg
48.9
40
Quality of Victory
43
28
Momentum Score
45
Burns
Thompson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
49%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance7
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Burns
Thompson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burns
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
Burns
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
45
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Burns
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
5
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Burns
Thompson
Striking3.2 / 6.1Volume4.9 / 5.1Grappling3.8 / 1.2Wrestling2.6 / 0.8Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Burns
Strike Zones
Thompson
Burns
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Thompson
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (82% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Burns
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.2W5.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.4L4.5W6.4W4.5W5.6W5.0W4.5W3.9L5.1W7.4L5.6W4.5W6.6L5.5L6.6L3.6L4.5L2014-072018-042020-052024-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Thompson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W5.9W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2.1L6.0W5.5W5.7L6.6L6.0W4.8L5.2L7.2L2012-022015-072019-032023-122025-07
WinLossTrend

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

Thompson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Gilbert Burns · Stephen Thompson
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