METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Lightweight
VS
50%
Ferguson
50%
Vannata
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:22
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsSubmissionR2 · 2:22
def. Lando Vannata · UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 50% vs Vannata at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vannata has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonVannata
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Vannata
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Vannata
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
45.9
54.2
Performance Avg
37.9
49
Quality of Victory
41
52
Momentum Score
70
Ferguson
Vannata
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
4.5
3.4
Style: Volume
4.7
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
3
6
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
25Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Vannata
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
6
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Vannata
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
14/20 fights
Ferguson
Vannata
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
70
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Vannata
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Vannata
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
FergusonVannata
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedVannata
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (64% of attacks) — Vannata absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Vannata targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Vannata
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
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L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
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L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
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Vannata · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Darrius FlowersKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Mike GrundyDecision
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L · Dec · R3
King GreenDecision
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