UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Lightweight
VS
50%
Ferguson
50%
Vannata
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:22
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Lando
Lando Vannata
"Groovy"
12 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferguson

This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 50% vs Vannata at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Vannata has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ferguson
Vannata
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Vannata
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
45.9
54.2
Performance Avg
37.9
49
Quality of Victory
41
52
Momentum Score
70
Ferguson
Vannata
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
3
6
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
25Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Vannata
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Vannata
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
14/20 fights
Ferguson
Vannata
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
70
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Vannata
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferguson
Vannata
Striking3.3 / 3.2Volume3.4 / 4.7Grappling3.8 / 3.2Wrestling2.7 / 2.2Submission4.0 / 2.5Pressure6.1 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Ferguson
Strike Zones
Vannata
Ferguson
Attacking
16HEAD6BODY3LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Vannata
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD6BODY3LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (64% of attacks) — Vannata absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Vannata targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferguson
RND
Vannata
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Vannata · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0103.3L5.0W5.5L6.5L5.0W5.6L4.5W6.2L4.5W2.3L5.9L3.5L2016-072018-072020-022022-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Vannata · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Darrius FlowersRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Sub · R1
Charles JourdainRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Mike GrundyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08

News & Media

Tony Ferguson · Lando Vannata
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