UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo
Las Vegas, USA
15 Oct 2022
Bantamweight
VS
64%
Martinez
36%
Davis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Martinez
Martinez holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Davis has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Davis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Martinez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Davis has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Martinez
Davis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
30+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Martinez
Davis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.2
17.5
35.0
Performance Avg
31.2
25
Quality of Victory
37
61
Momentum Score
15
Martinez
Davis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.4
48%
Strike Accuracy
36%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
15
3
Body
7
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance17
0Clinch2
0Ground4
Martinez
Davis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Martinez
Davis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
56
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/14 fights
Chin rating based on
9/24 fights
Martinez
Davis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
15
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Martinez
Davis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Martinez
Davis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
MartinezDavis
Strike Zones
Martinez
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedDavis
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Martinez targets the head (63% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Davis targets the head (65% of attacks) — Martinez absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Martinez
RND
Davis
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Martinez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Davis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Martinez · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Cameron SaaimanRating 6.5Decision
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Brandon DavisRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Ronnie LawrenceRating 5.8Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
W · Dec · R3
Guido CannettiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
Davis · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mana MartinezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · KO · R1
Batgerel DanaaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 6.4Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · Sub · R2
Randy CostaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04