UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Newark, USA
27 Mar 2010
Middleweight
VS
52%
Palhares
48%
Drwal
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Palhares
This is a genuine toss-up — Palhares at 52% vs Drwal at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Drwal has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Drwal throws more volume but Palhares connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Palhares's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Drwal has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Palhares
Drwal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+76"
46
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Palhares
Drwal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.7
20.2
54.0
Performance Avg
53.9
46
Quality of Victory
57
100
Momentum Score
52
Palhares
Drwal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
42%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Palhares
Drwal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
4.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Palhares
Drwal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/26 fights
Palhares
Drwal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Palhares
Drwal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Palhares
Drwal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Palhares
RND
Drwal
0/0R00/0
Palhares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Drwal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Palhares · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Mike PierceRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
L · KO · R1
Hector LombardRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · Sub · R1
Mike MassenzioRating 5Submission
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · 2012-01
W · Dec · R3
Dan MillerRating 4.5Decision
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08
Drwal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
David BranchRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · 2010-09
L · Sub · R1
Rousimar PalharesRating 1.5Submission
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03
W · Sub · R2
Drew McFedriesRating 5.2Submission
UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort · 2009-09
W · KO · R1
Mike CiesnoleviczRating 5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale · 2009-06
W · KO · R1
Ivan SeratiRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson · 2009-01