UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Flyweight
VS
55%
Rodrigues
45%
Vergara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodrigues
This is a genuine toss-up — Rodrigues at 55% vs Vergara at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rodrigues has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Vergara has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Vergara has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rodrigues
Vergara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
67"
Reach
+68"
30+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rodrigues
Vergara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.4
35.6
46.0
Performance Avg
36.0
60
Quality of Victory
35
22
Momentum Score
30
Rodrigues
Vergara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
56%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
9
9
Body
7
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance13
1Clinch4
2Ground1
Rodrigues
Vergara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodrigues
Vergara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
8/19 fights
Rodrigues
Vergara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
30
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Rodrigues
Vergara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodrigues
Vergara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
RodriguesVergara
Strike Zones
Rodrigues
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedVergara
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodrigues targets the head (55% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Vergara targets the head (50% of attacks) — Rodrigues absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodrigues
RND
Vergara
0/0R00/0
Rodrigues · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Vergara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Rodrigues · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
AlatengheiliRating 6.1Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezRating 2.5Submission
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