UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Lightweight
VS
59%
Saggo
41%
Salas
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:31
JS
Jason Saggo
12 – 4
5'11"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 19
JS
Justin Salas
"J-Bomb"
12 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide44 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'8"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Saggo

This is a genuine toss-up — Saggo at 59% vs Salas at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Saggo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Salas has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Salas has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Saggo
Salas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
70"
40+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Saggo
Salas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
12.7
49.0
Performance Avg
39.1
48
Quality of Victory
37
52
Momentum Score
35
Saggo
Salas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
49%
7.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
0
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
19Ground0
Saggo
Salas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Saggo
Salas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
22
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/16 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Saggo
Salas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Saggo
Salas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Saggo
Salas
Striking7.7 / 4.2Volume3.7 / 6.2Grappling0.8 / 1.6Wrestling0.6 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.2 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Saggo
Strike Zones
Salas
Saggo
Attacking
19HEAD0BODY1LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Salas
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD0BODY1LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Saggo targets the head (95% of attacks) — Salas absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Salas targets the body (100% of attacks) — Saggo absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Saggo
RND
Salas
0/0R00/0

Saggo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5L3.0L2014-062014-102016-032016-062016-122017-09
WinLossTrend

Salas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0104.5W1.6L4.5W1.5L5.0W2.8L1.5L2012-022013-072014-052016-03
WinLossTrend

Saggo · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Gilbert BurnsRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Rustam KhabilovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Leandro SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
W · KO · R1
Justin SalasRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · Dec · R3
Paul FelderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

Salas · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jason SaggoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · KO · R2
Joe ProctorRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
W · KO · R1
Ben WallRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
L · Sub · R1
Thiago TavaresRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07

News & Media

Jason Saggo · Justin Salas
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