UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus
Columbus, USA
26 Mar 2022
Flyweight
VS
53%
Nicolau
47%
Dvorak
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Matheus
Matheus Nicolau
19 – 6
5'6"66" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 38
DD
David Dvorak
"Undertaker"
20 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'5"
CFR 33

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nicolau

This is a genuine toss-up — Nicolau at 53% vs Dvorak at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Dvorak throws more volume but Nicolau connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nicolau's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nicolau
Dvorak
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
66"
Reach
+68"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nicolau
Dvorak
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.0
33.2
44.7
Performance Avg
40.8
32
Quality of Victory
35
49
Momentum Score
43
Nicolau
Dvorak
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
5
3
Body
1
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Nicolau
Dvorak
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nicolau
Dvorak
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
94
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/26 fights
Nicolau
Dvorak
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Nicolau
Dvorak
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nicolau
Dvorak
Striking2.7 / 1.0Volume7.0 / 6.3Grappling2.9 / 4.3Wrestling2.0 / 3.0Submission1.4 / 3.3Pressure3.9 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Nicolau
Strike Zones
Dvorak
Nicolau
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Dvorak
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nicolau targets the head (62% of attacks) — Dvorak absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Dvorak targets the head (63% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nicolau
RND
Dvorak
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nicolau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L6.2W4.6W4.5W5.4W2.3L3.4L6.6L2015-112018-072022-032024-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Dvorak · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.4W4.5W5.0W5.7L7.2L6.1L2020-032020-092021-052022-032022-122023-06
WinLossTrend

Nicolau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

Dvorak · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
L · Dec · R3
Manel KapeRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Jordan EspinosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

News & Media

Matheus Nicolau · David Dvorak
← Back to fights