METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
Atlanta, USA
30 Jul 2016
Welterweight
VS
73%
Brown
27%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:46
★ Official Result
Jake EllenbergerwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:46
def. Matt Brown · UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Brown
→
Actual result
Ellenberger wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Brown is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BrownEllenberger
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Brown
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
71"
45
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
15.7
54.0
Performance Avg
45.7
52
Quality of Victory
45
78
Momentum Score
56
Brown
Ellenberger
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.8
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
7.9
Style: Pressure
5.6
2.1
Style: Volume
3.4
13 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
18
2
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance7
2Clinch0
0Ground14
Brown
Ellenberger
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
1.2
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brown
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Brown
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
56
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Brown
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
60%
13
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Ellenberger
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
BrownEllenberger
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedEllenberger
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (71% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (86% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
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Ellenberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaKO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersKO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
Mike PerryKO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
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W · KO · R1
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UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07