UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
Atlanta, USA
30 Jul 2016
Welterweight
VS
73%
Brown
27%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
Brown is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brown
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
71"
45
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
15.7
54.0
Performance Avg
45.7
52
Quality of Victory
45
78
Momentum Score
56
Brown
Ellenberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.2
60%
Strike Accuracy
42%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
13 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
18
2
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance7
2Clinch0
0Ground14
Brown
Ellenberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Brown
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
56
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Brown
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
60%
13
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Ellenberger
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
BrownEllenberger
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedEllenberger
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (71% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (86% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Ellenberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
Ellenberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07