UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
Las Vegas, USA
22 May 2021
Lightweight
VS
50%
Alves
50%
Ismagulov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RA
Rafael Alves
"The Turn"
20 – 12
5'8"68" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 36
DI
Damir Ismagulov
"Qazaq"
24 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alves

This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 50% vs Ismagulov at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.

Striking split: Ismagulov throws more volume but Alves connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Alves
Ismagulov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
68"
Reach
+74"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Ismagulov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
35.4
42.4
Performance Avg
43.6
54
Quality of Victory
25
29
Momentum Score
65
Alves
Ismagulov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
42%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
12
4
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance14
2Clinch0
0Ground1
Alves
Ismagulov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Ismagulov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/32 fights
Chin rating based on
7/27 fights
Alves
Ismagulov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
29
65
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Ismagulov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Ismagulov
Striking0.5 / 1.4Volume0.5 / 9.4Grappling8.0 / 2.4Wrestling5.6 / 1.7Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.8 / 2.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.1
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.4
Alves
Strike Zones
Ismagulov
Alves
Attacking
11HEAD4BODY1LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Ismagulov
Attacking
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD4BODY1LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (69% of attacks) — Ismagulov absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Ismagulov targets the head (80% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Ismagulov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.1W5.2L6.8L2021-052021-112022-072023-02
WinLossTrend

Ismagulov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W5.8W4.7W4.5W4.6W7.1L7.0L2018-122019-082022-062023-07
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Nurullo AlievRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R1
Marc DiakieseRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Damir IsmagulovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05

Ismagulov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Guram KutateladzeRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Rafael AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Thiago MoisesRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · 2019-08

News & Media

Rafael Alves · Damir Ismagulov
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