★ Championship Bout · Flyweight
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Flyweight
VS
54%
Pantoja
46%
Kara-France
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pantoja
This is a genuine toss-up — Pantoja at 54% vs Kara-France at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pantoja has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Kara-France throws more volume but Pantoja connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kara-France has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pantoja
Kara-France
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
67"
Reach
+69"
36
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pantoja
Kara-France
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
52.5
60.2
Performance Avg
47.5
49
Quality of Victory
38
65
Momentum Score
80
Pantoja
Kara-France
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
7
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance7
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Pantoja
Kara-France
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pantoja
Kara-France
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/36 fights
Chin rating based on
13/37 fights
Pantoja
Kara-France
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
80
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pantoja
Kara-France
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
38%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pantoja
Kara-France
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
PantojaKara-France
Strike Zones
Pantoja
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedKara-France
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pantoja targets the head (83% of attacks) — Kara-France absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Kara-France targets the head (88% of attacks) — Pantoja absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pantoja
RND
Kara-France
0/0R00/0
Pantoja · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Kara-France · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Pantoja · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Joshua VanRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Kai Kara-FranceRating 6.1Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.1Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Kara-France · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 4Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Steve ErcegRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · KO · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Askar AskarovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03