UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon
Hollywood, USA
25 Jan 2007
Heavyweight
VS
55%
O'Brien
45%
Herring
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JO
Jake O'Brien
"Irish"
15 – 4
6'3"76" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 15
HH
Heath Herring
"The Texas Crazy Horse"
28 – 16
Well-Rounded48 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 12

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: O'Brien

This is a genuine toss-up — O'Brien at 55% vs Herring at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Herring has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

O'Brien's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

O'Brien
Herring
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
+78"
41+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
O'Brien
Herring
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.6
11.9
42.4
Performance Avg
31.0
33
Quality of Victory
25
50
Momentum Score
35
O'Brien
Herring
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.8
33%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
6
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground6
O'Brien
Herring
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
O'Brien
Herring
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
94
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
5/44 fights
O'Brien
Herring
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
35
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
O'Brien
Herring
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

O'Brien
Herring
Striking3.6 / 0.8Volume7.1 / 8.8Grappling1.8 / 2.4Wrestling1.3 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 1.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
O'Brien
Strike Zones
Herring
O'Brien
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Herring
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯O'Brien targets the body (100% of attacks) — Herring absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Herring targets the head (86% of attacks) — O'Brien absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

O'Brien
RND
Herring
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

O'Brien · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.2W4.5W4.5W3.5L1.5L4.5W4.5L2006-082007-012008-072009-07
WinLossTrend

Herring · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2007-012007-042007-072008-032008-08
WinLossTrend

O'Brien · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Jon JonesRating 4.5
Submission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
W · Dec · R3
Christian WellischRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2 · 2009-01
L · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07
L · KO · R2
Andrei ArlovskiRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion · 2008-03
W · Dec · R3
Heath HerringRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon · 2007-01

Herring · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brock LesnarRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 87: Seek And Destroy · 2008-08
W · Dec · R3
Cheick KongoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion · 2008-03
L · Dec · R3
Antonio Rodrigo NogueiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07
W · Dec · R3
Brad ImesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04
L · Dec · R3
Jake O'BrienRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon · 2007-01

News & Media

Jake O'Brien · Heath Herring
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