★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
79%
Jones
21%
Machida
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:26
Jon
Jon Jones
"Bones"
28 – 1
6'4"84" reachOrthodox38 yrs19-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 71
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak47 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jones

Jones is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Jones has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Machida has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jones
Machida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
84"+
Reach
74"
38+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Jones
Machida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
18.7
74.6
Performance Avg
53.8
61
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
78
Jones
Machida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
58%
Strike Accuracy
54%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
6
Body
0
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance5
7Clinch0
3Ground0
Jones
Machida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jones
Machida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
4
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/29 fights
Chin rating based on
24/32 fights
Jones
Machida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
19-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Jones
Machida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
6
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jones
Machida
Striking4.6 / 5.7Volume5.5 / 5.3Grappling3.3 / 1.7Wrestling2.3 / 1.2Submission2.7 / 0.6Pressure6.7 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Jones
Strike Zones
Machida
Jones
Attacking
5HEAD6BODY5LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Machida
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD6BODY5LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the body (38% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Machida targets the head (60% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jones
RND
Machida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Jones · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W4.0L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.1W4.5W5.4W5.0W4.5W4.9W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.7W4.5W5.5W6.8W6.3W2008-082011-022013-042019-032024-11
WinLossTrend

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Jones · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

News & Media

Jon Jones · Lyoto Machida
← Back to fights