METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
79%
Jones
21%
Machida
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:26
★ Official Result
Jon JoneswinsSubmissionR2 · 4:26
def. Lyoto Machida · UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Jones
→
Actual result
Jones wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Jones is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Machida has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JonesMachida
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Jones
Machida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
84"+
Reach
74"
39+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Jones
Machida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
18.7
74.6
Performance Avg
53.8
61
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
78
Jones
Machida
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.6
/ 10
5.7
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
5.5
5.5
Style: Volume
5.3
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
6
Body
0
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance5
7Clinch0
3Ground0
Jones
Machida
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.6
6
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jones
Machida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
4
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/29 fights
Chin rating based on
24/32 fights
Jones
Machida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
19-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Jones
Machida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
6
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jones
Machida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
JonesMachida
Strike Zones
Jones
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedMachida
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the body (38% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Machida targets the head (60% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jones
RND
Machida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jones · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicKO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneSubmission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesDecision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosDecision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithDecision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
Machida · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortKO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersDecision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdSubmission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04