UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Las Vegas, USA
4 Oct 2025
Women's Bantamweight
VS
62%
Chiasson
38%
Santos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiasson
Chiasson holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Santos has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Chiasson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Chiasson's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Chiasson
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'6"
72"+
Reach
68"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chiasson
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.5
37.0
53.0
Performance Avg
38.3
50
Quality of Victory
25
96
Momentum Score
55
Chiasson
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
4
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance3
4Clinch0
5Ground0
Chiasson
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiasson
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/17 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Chiasson
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
96
55
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Chiasson
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiasson
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.8
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.2
ChiassonSantos
Strike Zones
Chiasson
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSantos
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiasson targets the head (73% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the body (67% of attacks) — Chiasson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiasson
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
Chiasson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Chiasson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · R2
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 4.9UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Pannie KianzadRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
Santos · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Chelsea ChandlerRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Holly HolmRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03