UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Las Vegas, USA
15 Jul 2023
Featherweight
VS
30%
Lutz
70%
Baghdasaryan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TL
Tucker Lutz
"Top Gun"
12 – 4
5'8"72" reachOrthodox31 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
Melsik
Melsik Baghdasaryan
"The Gun"
8 – 3
Well-Rounded34 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'9"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Baghdasaryan

Baghdasaryan is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Baghdasaryan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Baghdasaryan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Baghdasaryan has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lutz
Baghdasaryan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
31+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lutz
Baghdasaryan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.7
45.5
25.0
Performance Avg
45.0
25
Quality of Victory
35
17
Momentum Score
48
Lutz
Baghdasaryan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.2
40%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
12
3
Body
13
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance14
1Clinch10
0Ground1
Lutz
Baghdasaryan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lutz
Baghdasaryan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/16 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Lutz
Baghdasaryan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
48
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Lutz
Baghdasaryan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lutz
Baghdasaryan
Striking0.5 / 4.5Volume8.5 / 6.5Grappling2.4 / 1.6Wrestling1.7 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.8 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Lutz
Strike Zones
Baghdasaryan
Lutz
Attacking
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD13BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Baghdasaryan
Attacking
12HEAD13BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lutz targets the body (100% of attacks) — Baghdasaryan absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Baghdasaryan targets the body (52% of attacks) — Lutz absorbs 52% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lutz
RND
Baghdasaryan
0/0R00/0

Lutz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W6.5L3.6L6.0L2021-052021-112023-032023-07
WinLossTrend

Baghdasaryan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.2W4.5W3.1L4.5W3.1L2021-072021-112023-022023-072025-02
WinLossTrend

Lutz · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Melsik BaghdasaryanRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Daniel PinedaRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · Dec · R3
Kevin AguilarRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05

Baghdasaryan · Last 5

Upcoming
Murtazali Magomedov
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Jean SilvaRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Tucker LutzRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Josh CulibaoRating 3.1
Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SouzaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

News & Media

Tucker Lutz · Melsik Baghdasaryan
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