UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jul 2024
Heavyweight
VS
62%
Usman
38%
Petersen
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Usman
Usman holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Petersen has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Petersen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Petersen has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Usman
Petersen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
74"
37
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Usman
Petersen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.7
34.1
46.2
Performance Avg
35.0
33
Quality of Victory
25
83
Momentum Score
40
Usman
Petersen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
44%
Strike Accuracy
66%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
25
7
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance28
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Usman
Petersen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Petersen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/16 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Usman
Petersen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
40
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Usman
Petersen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Usman
Petersen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
UsmanPetersen
Strike Zones
Usman
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedPetersen
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (71% of attacks) — Petersen absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Petersen targets the head (86% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Usman
RND
Petersen
0/0R00/0
Usman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Petersen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Usman · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Hamdy AbdelwahabRating 5Decision
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Thomas PetersenRating 5.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 6.6Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5Decision
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Petersen · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Guilherme PatRating 4.8Decision
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L · KO · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 5.1KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8Decision
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L · KO · R1
Shamil GazievRating 2.2KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Mohammed UsmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07