UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens
Tampa, USA
7 Feb 2009
Lightweight
VS
28%
Lauzon
72%
Stephens
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stephens
Stephens is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Stephens throws more volume but Lauzon connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lauzon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lauzon
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lauzon
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
45.0
51.5
Performance Avg
41.1
49
Quality of Victory
40
59
Momentum Score
76
Lauzon
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
43%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
7
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
2Ground4
Lauzon
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lauzon
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Lauzon
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
76
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Lauzon
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
47%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
7
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lauzon
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
LauzonStephens
Strike Zones
Lauzon
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedStephens
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lauzon targets the head (75% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (88% of attacks) — Lauzon absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lauzon
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
Lauzon · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lauzon · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
L · KO · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · KO · R1
Clay GuidaRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Marcin HeldRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10