UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
Melbourne, Australia
5 Oct 2019
Lightweight
VS
35%
Riddell
65%
Mullarkey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mullarkey
Mullarkey holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Riddell has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mullarkey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Riddell has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Riddell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mullarkey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Riddell
Mullarkey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+74"
34
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Riddell
Mullarkey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.7
38.1
37.9
Performance Avg
40.0
25
Quality of Victory
36
50
Momentum Score
51
Riddell
Mullarkey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.6
57%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
52
Head
12
8
Body
2
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
39Distance15
2Clinch0
20Ground0
Riddell
Mullarkey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riddell
Mullarkey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
13/27 fights
Riddell
Mullarkey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
51
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Riddell
Mullarkey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Riddell
Mullarkey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
9.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
RiddellMullarkey
Strike Zones
Riddell
Attacking
61 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedMullarkey
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
61 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Riddell targets the head (85% of attacks) — Mullarkey absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Mullarkey targets the head (80% of attacks) — Riddell absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Riddell
RND
Mullarkey
0/0R00/0
Riddell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Mullarkey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Riddell · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 2.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
L · Sub · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.7Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Alex Da SilvaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
Mullarkey · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6Submission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Nasrat HaqparastRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
John MakdessiRating 4.5Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09