UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
23 Jan 2021
Women's Bantamweight
VS
70%
Pena
30%
McMann
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pena
Pena is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pena has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Pena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pena's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McMann has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pena
McMann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
66"
36+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pena
McMann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.6
28.4
58.0
Performance Avg
44.1
52
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
92
Pena
McMann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
0
5
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance1
4Clinch0
8Ground0
Pena
McMann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pena
McMann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
28
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/19 fights
Chin rating based on
13/19 fights
Pena
McMann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
92
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Pena
McMann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
43%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pena
McMann
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
PenaMcMann
Strike Zones
Pena
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMcMann
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pena targets the head (75% of attacks) — McMann absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯McMann targets the body (100% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pena
RND
McMann
0/0R00/0
Pena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
McMann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Pena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonRating 4.3Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonRating 5.1Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Amanda NunesRating 6.3Submission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R3
Sara McMannRating 5.5Submission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
McMann · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
L · Sub · R3
Julianna PenaRating 5.5Submission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Lina LansbergRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Sub · R2
Marion ReneauRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Sub · R2
Ketlen VieiraRating 3.1Submission
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09