METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
23 Jan 2021
Women's Bantamweight
VS
70%
Pena
30%
McMann
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:39
★ Official Result
Julianna PenawinsSubmissionR3 · 3:39
def. Sara McMann · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pena
→
Actual result
Pena wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Pena is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pena has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Pena's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McMann has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PenaMcMann
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pena
McMann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
66"
37+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pena
McMann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.6
28.4
58.0
Performance Avg
44.1
52
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
92
Pena
McMann
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
5.5
Style: Pressure
4.6
5.3
Style: Volume
5.7
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
0
5
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance1
4Clinch0
8Ground0
Pena
McMann
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pena
McMann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
28
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/19 fights
Chin rating based on
13/19 fights
Pena
McMann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
92
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Pena
McMann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
43%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pena
McMann
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
PenaMcMann
Strike Zones
Pena
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMcMann
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pena targets the head (75% of attacks) — McMann absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯McMann targets the body (100% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pena
RND
McMann
0/0R00/0
Pena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonSubmission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesDecision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Amanda NunesSubmission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R3
Sara McMannSubmission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
McMann · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
L · Sub · R3
Julianna PenaSubmission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Lina LansbergDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Sub · R2
Marion ReneauSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Sub · R2
Ketlen VieiraSubmission
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09