UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Glasgow, United Kingdom
16 Jul 2017
Welterweight
VS
55%
Nelson
45%
Ponzinibbio
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:22
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 55% vs Ponzinibbio at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Ponzinibbio throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ponzinibbio has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Ponzinibbio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Ponzinibbio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
45.7
52.8
Performance Avg
50.5
46
Quality of Victory
44
61
Momentum Score
46
Nelson
Ponzinibbio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
2.1
69%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Nelson
Ponzinibbio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Ponzinibbio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
4
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
20/40 fights
Nelson
Ponzinibbio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
46
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Nelson
Ponzinibbio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
58%
0
KO / TKO Wins
7
8
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Ponzinibbio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
NelsonPonzinibbio
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedPonzinibbio
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Ponzinibbio absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Ponzinibbio targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Ponzinibbio
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Ponzinibbio · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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Ponzinibbio · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 4.9KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
Carlston HarrisRating 6.3KO/TKO
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Muslim SalikhovRating 6.5Decision
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L · KO · R3
Kevin HollandRating 4.6KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5KO/TKO
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