UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
Sydney, Australia
8 Feb 2025
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Tafa
47%
Teixeira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:35
Justin
Justin Tafa
"Bad Man"
7 – 5
6'0"74" reachSouthpaw32 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 66
Tallison
Tallison Teixeira
"Xicao"
9 – 1
Well-Rounded26 yrsOrthodox83" reach6'7"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tafa

This is a genuine toss-up — Tafa at 53% vs Teixeira at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Tafa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Tafa throws more volume but Teixeira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Tafa's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tafa
Teixeira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'7"
74"
Reach
+83"
32
Age
+26
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tafa
Teixeira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
59.8
53.8
Performance Avg
52.2
60
Quality of Victory
43
98
Momentum Score
85
Tafa
Teixeira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
65%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
5
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch3
0Ground4
Tafa
Teixeira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tafa
Teixeira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
Tafa
Teixeira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Tafa
Teixeira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tafa
Teixeira
Striking10.0 / 6.3Volume0.9 / 5.3Grappling0.0 / 1.2Wrestling0.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.3 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Tafa
Strike Zones
Teixeira
Tafa
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Teixeira
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Teixeira targets the head (63% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tafa
RND
Teixeira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Tafa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.0L2.7L2019-102021-052023-092025-02
WinLossTrend

Teixeira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.6W2.7L4.9W2025-022025-072026-01
WinLossTrend

Tafa · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · KO · R1
Austen LaneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Upcoming
Austen Lane
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Parker PorterRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

Teixeira · Last 4

Upcoming
Sergei Pavlovich
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Tai TuivasaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Justin TafaRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

News & Media

Justin Tafa · Tallison Teixeira
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