UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Welterweight
VS
50%
Brady
50%
Buckley
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Sean
Sean Brady
19 – 2
5'10"72" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Joaquin
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
21 – 8
Striker2-fight slide32 yrsSouthpaw76" reach5'10"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brady

This is a genuine toss-up — Brady at 50% vs Buckley at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Buckley throws more volume but Brady connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Brady's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Buckley has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brady
Buckley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+76"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Brady
Buckley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
58.0
53.7
Performance Avg
50.6
35
Quality of Victory
41
84
Momentum Score
100
Brady
Buckley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
41%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch0
22Ground0
Brady
Buckley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brady
Buckley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
28
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/21 fights
Chin rating based on
17/29 fights
Brady
Buckley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Brady
Buckley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
55%
0
KO / TKO Wins
6
4
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brady
Buckley
Striking1.6 / 6.8Volume6.1 / 3.5Grappling4.9 / 0.7Wrestling3.4 / 0.5Submission4.4 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
4.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Brady
Strike Zones
Buckley
Brady
Attacking
24HEAD0BODY1LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Buckley
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD0BODY1LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brady targets the head (96% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brady
RND
Buckley
0/0R00/0

Brady · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.7W5.0W5.2W6.5W5.3W3.8L5.8W4.7W6.5W3.6L5.7W2019-102021-032023-122025-112026-05
WinLossTrend

Buckley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.6L5.2W5.2W1.5L5.5W6.0W4.2W6.9L3.5L5.2W4.5W6.7W6.4W6.1W5.6W6.6L6.6L2020-082022-022023-102025-062026-05
WinLossTrend

Brady · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R4
Leon EdwardsRating 6.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

Buckley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.6
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

News & Media

Sean Brady · Joaquin Buckley
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