★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Boston, USA
19 Aug 2023
Women's Strawweight
VS
56%
Weili
44%
Lemos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Weili
This is a genuine toss-up — Weili at 56% vs Lemos at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Weili has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Weili has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lemos has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Weili
Lemos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
63"
Reach
+65"
36+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Weili
Lemos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
71.6
56.2
66.9
Performance Avg
49.6
60
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
85
Weili
Lemos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
56%
Strike Accuracy
56%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
42
Head
0
11
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance1
3Clinch0
44Ground0
Weili
Lemos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Weili
Lemos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
48
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/30 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Weili
Lemos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
85
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Weili
Lemos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
56%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Weili
Lemos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
WeiliLemos
Strike Zones
Weili
Attacking
55 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedLemos
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
55 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Weili targets the head (76% of attacks) — Lemos absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Lemos targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Weili absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Weili
RND
Lemos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Weili · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Lemos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Weili · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Tatiana SuarezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Yan XiaonanRating 5.5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Dec · R5
Amanda LemosRating 5.6Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
W · Sub · R2
Carla EsparzaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Lemos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Tatiana SuarezRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 5.4Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R2
Virna JandirobaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 5.7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02