UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
49%
Garcia
51%
Hernandez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Rafa
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
19 – 4
5'7"70" reachOrthodox31 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Alexander
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
18 – 9
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'9"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hernandez

This is a genuine toss-up — Garcia at 49% vs Hernandez at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Hernandez throws more volume but Garcia connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Hernandez has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Garcia
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
31+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Garcia
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.6
52.9
44.7
Performance Avg
47.4
32
Quality of Victory
42
75
Momentum Score
90
Garcia
Hernandez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
21
1
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
28Distance24
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Garcia
Hernandez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garcia
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
14
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/23 fights
Chin rating based on
18/27 fights
Garcia
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
90
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Garcia
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Garcia
Hernandez
Striking2.7 / 6.1Volume7.0 / 5.1Grappling2.9 / 1.2Wrestling2.0 / 0.8Submission1.4 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Garcia
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Garcia
Attacking
27HEAD1BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD3BODY0LEGS24 absorbed
Hernandez
Attacking
21HEAD3BODY0LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD1BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (93% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the head (88% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Garcia
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0

Garcia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.2L5.5L4.5W5.2W6.5L4.8W5.0W4.2L4.7W5.9W5.4W2021-032022-042023-042025-092026-04
WinLossTrend

Hernandez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0106.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.0L5.0W5.7L5.0W3.5L3.9L4.9W5.7L5.8L4.5W4.5W5.8W6.3W6.3L2018-032020-102023-022025-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Garcia · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Grant DawsonRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Hernandez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Chase HooperRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Rafa Garcia · Alexander Hernandez
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