UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
Atlanta, USA
30 Jul 2016
Heavyweight
VS
92%
Hamilton
8%
Grabowski
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:14
DG
CFR 2
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hamilton
Hamilton is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hamilton has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 47 points.
Hamilton has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hamilton's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Grabowski has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hamilton
Grabowski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
75"
46
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hamilton
Grabowski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.2
1.5
40.0
Performance Avg
0.0
47
Quality of Victory
0
72
Momentum Score
0
Hamilton
Grabowski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.4
63%
Strike Accuracy
41%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
6Clinch1
0Ground0
Hamilton
Grabowski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hamilton
Grabowski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
3/25 fights
Hamilton
Grabowski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Hamilton
Grabowski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hamilton
Grabowski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HamiltonGrabowski
Strike Zones
Hamilton
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedGrabowski
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hamilton targets the head (89% of attacks) — Grabowski absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Grabowski targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hamilton absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hamilton
RND
Grabowski
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hamilton · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Grabowski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.2WinLossTrend
Hamilton · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Adam WieczorekRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Daniel SpitzRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Marcel FortunaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02
L · Sub · R1
Francis NgannouRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Damian GrabowskiRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
Grabowski · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Anthony HamiltonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02