UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo
Las Vegas, USA
15 Oct 2022
Welterweight
VS
26%
Jackson
74%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:33
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodriguez
Rodriguez is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rodriguez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Striking split: Rodriguez throws more volume but Jackson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Jackson's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rodriguez has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jackson
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
74"+
Reach
71"
41
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Jackson
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
49.5
31.3
Performance Avg
49.3
30
Quality of Victory
60
35
Momentum Score
52
Jackson
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
6.3
57%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
12
2
Body
8
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance13
1Clinch6
0Ground3
Jackson
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Jackson
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4 fights
Chin rating based on
3/7 fights
Jackson
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
52
L · KO · R1
W · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Jackson
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jackson
Rodriguez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
JacksonRodriguez
Strike Zones
Jackson
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedRodriguez
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jackson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (55% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jackson
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jackson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.7WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Jackson · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Pete RodriguezRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
W · R1
Dean BarryRating 4UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Upcoming
CM PunkUFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Sub · R1
Mickey GallRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
Rodriguez · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Themba GorimboRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
W · KO · R1
Mike JacksonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · KO · R1
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01