UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Catch Weight
VS
54%
Cong
46%
Moura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cong
This is a genuine toss-up — Cong at 54% vs Moura at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cong has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Cong
Moura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
+67"
34
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cong
Moura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
51.1
52.2
Performance Avg
45.0
34
Quality of Victory
35
99
Momentum Score
64
Cong
Moura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
36%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
3
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
5Clinch0
1Ground0
Cong
Moura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cong
Moura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/10 fights
Chin rating based on
5/14 fights
Cong
Moura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
64
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Cong
Moura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cong
Moura
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
CongMoura
Strike Zones
Cong
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMoura
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cong targets the head (50% of attacks) — Moura absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Moura targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cong absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cong
RND
Moura
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cong · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Moura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Cong · Last 5
Upcoming
Tracy CortezUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 5.3Decision
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Moura · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Wang CongRating 6.8Decision
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Lauren MurphyRating 5.3Decision
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