UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Glendale, USA
14 Apr 2018
Women's Flyweight
VS
65%
Dobson
35%
Mueller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dobson
Dobson holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Mueller has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dobson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Striking split: Mueller throws more volume but Dobson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dobson's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dobson
Mueller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
69"+
Reach
67"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dobson
Mueller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
10.0
46.3
Performance Avg
25.0
55
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
28
Dobson
Mueller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
37%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
11
12
Body
3
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
17Distance14
3Clinch3
0Ground0
Dobson
Mueller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dobson
Mueller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/9 fights
Chin rating based on
4/8 fights
Dobson
Mueller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
28
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Dobson
Mueller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dobson
Mueller
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
DobsonMueller
Strike Zones
Dobson
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedMueller
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dobson targets the body (60% of attacks) — Mueller absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Mueller targets the head (65% of attacks) — Dobson absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dobson
RND
Mueller
0/0R00/0
Dobson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Mueller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Dobson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Casey O'NeillRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
W · KO · R2
Mariya AgapovaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Priscila CachoeiraRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Sabina MazoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R3
Lauren MuellerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
Mueller · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R3
Poliana BotelhoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
L · Sub · R1
Wu YananRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Shana DobsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04