UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
Las Vegas, USA
26 Feb 2022
Lightweight
VS
53%
Tsarukyan
47%
Alvarez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:57
Arman
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
23 – 3
5'7"72" reachOrthodox29 yrs5-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 68
Joel
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23 – 4
Pressure Fighter33 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tsarukyan

This is a genuine toss-up — Tsarukyan at 53% vs Alvarez at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alvarez has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tsarukyan
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
+77"
29+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tsarukyan
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
67.5
60.9
58.4
Performance Avg
59.7
42
Quality of Victory
51
100
Momentum Score
59
Tsarukyan
Alvarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.1
55%
Strike Accuracy
57%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
1
2
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
0Clinch0
23Ground0
Tsarukyan
Alvarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tsarukyan
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/26 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Tsarukyan
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
59
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Tsarukyan
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tsarukyan
Alvarez
Striking5.7 / 6.5Volume5.7 / 2.5Grappling2.0 / 3.3Wrestling1.4 / 2.3Submission1.0 / 3.8Pressure6.0 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Tsarukyan
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Tsarukyan
Attacking
21HEAD2BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Alvarez
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD2BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tsarukyan targets the head (91% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (50% of attacks) — Tsarukyan absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tsarukyan
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0

Tsarukyan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0107.5L4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W6.5W6.6L4.5W6.1W6.0W5.9W6.0W2019-042021-012022-062023-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.4L5.4W6.3W6.0W6.0W5.0L2019-022020-102023-072025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Tsarukyan · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Dan HookerRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · KO · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Damir IsmagulovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

News & Media

Arman Tsarukyan · Joel Alvarez
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