Arman Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green

Las Vegas, USA

26 Feb 2022

Lightweight

53%

Tsarukyan

47%

Alvarez

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 2 · 1:57

Arman Tsarukyan

"Ahalkalakets"

23 – 3

5'7"72" reachOrthodox29 yrs5-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 68

Joel Alvarez

"El Fenomeno"

23 – 4

Pressure Fighter2-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"

CFR 59

★ Official Result

Arman TsarukyanwinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:57

def. Joel Alvarez · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Tsarukyan

→

Actual result

Tsarukyan wins

KO/TKO · R2

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Tsarukyan at 53% vs Alvarez at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Alvarez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

TsarukyanAlvarez

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Tsarukyan

Alvarez

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'7"

Height

+6'3"

72"

Reach

+77"

29+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Tsarukyan

Alvarez

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

67.5

59.3

58.4

Performance Avg

57.2

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Tsarukyan

Alvarez

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.7

/ 10

6.3

/ 10

6.0

Style: Pressure

8.1

5.7

Style: Volume

2.3

4 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

4 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

0Distance2

0Clinch0

23Ground0

Tsarukyan

Alvarez

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.0

/ 10

3.3

/ 10

1.4

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.3

1.0

Submission Style (/10)

3.8

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Tsarukyan

Alvarez

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

6 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

13/26 fights

Chin rating based on

12/27 fights

Tsarukyan

Alvarez

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

5-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

Upcoming

W · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

W · KO · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

W · KO · R3

Tsarukyan

Alvarez

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

50%

88%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tsarukyan

Alvarez

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.7

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.3

2.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.3

1.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.3

1.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.8

6.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

8.1

5.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.3

Tsarukyan

Strike Zones

Alvarez

Tsarukyan

Attacking

23 landed

Absorbing

2 absorbed

Alvarez

Attacking

2 landed

Absorbing

23 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Tsarukyan targets the head (91% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 91% of strikes there

🎯Alvarez targets the head (50% of attacks) — Tsarukyan absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tsarukyan

RND

Alvarez

0/0R00/0

Tsarukyan · Last 5

Upcoming

Mauricio Ruffy

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

W · Sub · R2

Dan Hooker

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

W · Dec · R3

Charles Oliveira

Decision

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

W · KO · R1

Beneil Dariush

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

W · KO · R3

Joaquim Silva

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Chidi Njokuani

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

L · Sub · R2

Yaroslav Amosov

Submission

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

W · Dec · R3

Vicente Luque

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10

W · KO · R1

Drakkar Klose

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

W · KO · R3

Elves Brener

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

News & Media

Arman Tsarukyan · Joel Alvarez

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