★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
Las Vegas, USA
2 Mar 2019
Welterweight
VS
25%
Woodley
75%
Usman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Usman
Usman is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Woodley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Usman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Woodley's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Woodley
Usman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
+76"
44
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Woodley
Usman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
57.4
58.9
Performance Avg
61.2
58
Quality of Victory
46
40
Momentum Score
55
Woodley
Usman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
49%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
10
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground14
Woodley
Usman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.6
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Woodley
Usman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/26 fights
Chin rating based on
19/25 fights
Woodley
Usman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
55
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Woodley
Usman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
31%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Woodley
Usman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.2
WoodleyUsman
Strike Zones
Woodley
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedUsman
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Woodley targets the head (100% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Usman targets the body (67% of attacks) — Woodley absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Woodley
RND
Usman
0/0R00/0
Woodley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Usman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Woodley · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Darren TillRating 5.1Submission
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09
Usman · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11