UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
45%
Araujo
55%
Silva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Silva
This is a genuine toss-up — Araujo at 45% vs Silva at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Silva throws more volume but Araujo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Araujo
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
68"+
Reach
67"
39
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Araujo
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.0
59.1
38.7
Performance Avg
50.4
29
Quality of Victory
42
84
Momentum Score
77
Araujo
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
44%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
8
2
Body
7
5
Leg
10
RangeRange
16Distance17
0Clinch8
1Ground0
Araujo
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Araujo
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
8/26 fights
Araujo
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
77
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Araujo
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Araujo
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
AraujoSilva
Strike Zones
Araujo
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedSilva
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Araujo targets the head (59% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the legs (40% of attacks) — Araujo absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Araujo
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
Araujo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Araujo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tracy CortezRating 6.2Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Karine SilvaRating 5.7Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
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UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Silva · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jasmine JasudaviciusRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberRating 6.5Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Dione BarbosaRating 5.2Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 6.2Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Ariane da SilvaRating 4.5Decision
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