UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Las Vegas, USA
22 Apr 2023
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Pavlovich
47%
Blaydes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:08
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pavlovich
This is a genuine toss-up — Pavlovich at 53% vs Blaydes at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Pavlovich has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Pavlovich throws more volume but Blaydes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pavlovich's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Blaydes has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pavlovich
Blaydes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
84"+
Reach
80"
34+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Pavlovich
Blaydes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.8
53.9
60.6
Performance Avg
53.4
53
Quality of Victory
42
59
Momentum Score
81
Pavlovich
Blaydes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
56%
8.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
11
6
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
32Distance14
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Pavlovich
Blaydes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pavlovich
Blaydes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
8
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
21/25 fights
Pavlovich
Blaydes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
81
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Pavlovich
Blaydes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pavlovich
Blaydes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.4
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
PavlovichBlaydes
Strike Zones
Pavlovich
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedBlaydes
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (83% of attacks) — Blaydes absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Blaydes targets the head (79% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pavlovich
RND
Blaydes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pavlovich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Blaydes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Pavlovich · Last 5
Upcoming
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Blaydes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Josh HokitRating 7.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 4.8Decision
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L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
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UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04