UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Aug 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Brundage
43%
McConico
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brundage
This is a genuine toss-up — Brundage at 57% vs McConico at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brundage has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Brundage has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brundage's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McConico has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brundage
McConico
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
72"
Reach
+77"
32+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Brundage
McConico
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
34.0
49.0
Performance Avg
35.0
53
Quality of Victory
25
26
Momentum Score
39
Brundage
McConico
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
44%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
12
1
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance12
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Brundage
McConico
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brundage
McConico
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
56
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Brundage
McConico
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
39
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Brundage
McConico
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brundage
McConico
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
BrundageMcConico
Strike Zones
Brundage
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedMcConico
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brundage targets the head (92% of attacks) — McConico absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯McConico targets the head (75% of attacks) — Brundage absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brundage
RND
McConico
0/0R00/0
Brundage · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
McConico · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Brundage · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Andre PetroskiRating 5.7KO/TKO
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Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
Rodolfo VieiraRating 5.8Decision
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