UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Wichita, USA
9 Mar 2019
Bantamweight
VS
41%
Smolka
59%
Schnell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Schnell
This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 41% vs Schnell at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Schnell has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smolka
Schnell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
68"
Reach
+70"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smolka
Schnell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
38.1
46.5
Performance Avg
40.7
46
Quality of Victory
37
60
Momentum Score
45
Smolka
Schnell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.6
51%
Strike Accuracy
41%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
11
1
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance13
0Clinch1
1Ground0
Smolka
Schnell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.8
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
Schnell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
17/27 fights
Smolka
Schnell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Smolka
Schnell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
43%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Schnell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
SmolkaSchnell
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSchnell
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (69% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Schnell targets the head (79% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Schnell
0/0R00/0
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Schnell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Schnell · Last 5
Upcoming
Imanol RodriguezUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03