METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Wichita, USA
9 Mar 2019
Bantamweight
VS
41%
Smolka
59%
Schnell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:18
★ Official Result
Matt SchnellwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:18
def. Louis Smolka · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Schnell
→
Actual result
Schnell wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 41% vs Schnell at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Schnell has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmolkaSchnell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smolka
Schnell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
68"
Reach
+70"
35+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smolka
Schnell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
37.5
46.5
Performance Avg
39.6
46
Quality of Victory
37
60
Momentum Score
45
Smolka
Schnell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.9
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
4.3
2.9
Style: Volume
5.5
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
11
1
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance13
0Clinch1
1Ground0
Smolka
Schnell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
4.8
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.4
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
4.3
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smolka
Schnell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
6
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
17/27 fights
Smolka
Schnell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Smolka
Schnell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
43%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Schnell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
SmolkaSchnell
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSchnell
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (69% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Schnell targets the head (79% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Schnell
0/0R00/0
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantKO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesKO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneySubmission
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W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldKO/TKO
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Schnell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alessandro CostaKO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickDecision
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L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegKO/TKO
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