METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Las Vegas, USA
19 Sept 2020
Women's Strawweight
VS
78%
Dern
22%
Markos
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:44
★ Official Result
Mackenzie DernwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:44
def. Randa Markos · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dern
→
Actual result
Dern wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Dern is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Markos has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DernMarkos
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dern
Markos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
63"
Reach
63"
33+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Markos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.4
16.7
52.7
Performance Avg
34.0
41
Quality of Victory
29
94
Momentum Score
15
Dern
Markos
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
2.2
6.1
Style: Volume
7.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
2
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Dern
Markos
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
3.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dern
Markos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
60
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/21 fights
Chin rating based on
18/23 fights
Dern
Markos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
15
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Dern
Markos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
14%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dern
Markos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.2
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
DernMarkos
Strike Zones
Dern
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMarkos
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (67% of attacks) — Markos absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Markos targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dern
RND
Markos
0/0R00/0
Dern · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Gillian RobertsonDecision
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W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Markos · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Livinha SouzaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · R1
Luana PinheiroUFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Kanako MurataDecision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · 2020-11
L · Sub · R1
Mackenzie DernSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Amanda RibasDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03