UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Las Vegas, USA
19 Sept 2020
Women's Strawweight
VS
78%
Dern
22%
Markos
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:44
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dern
Dern is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Dern has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Markos has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dern
Markos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
63"
Reach
63"
33+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Markos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.6
16.7
51.1
Performance Avg
34.0
39
Quality of Victory
29
94
Momentum Score
15
Dern
Markos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
42%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
2
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Dern
Markos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dern
Markos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
60
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
18/23 fights
Dern
Markos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
15
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Dern
Markos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
14%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dern
Markos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
4.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.2
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
DernMarkos
Strike Zones
Dern
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMarkos
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (67% of attacks) — Markos absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Markos targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dern
RND
Markos
0/0R00/0
Dern · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Markos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Dern · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Markos · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Livinha SouzaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · R1
Luana PinheiroRating 4UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Kanako MurataRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · 2020-11
L · Sub · R1
Mackenzie DernRating 2.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03