★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
36%
Esparza
64%
Weili
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:05
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Weili
Weili holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Esparza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Weili has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Weili has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Esparza
Weili
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'4"
63"
Reach
63"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Esparza
Weili
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
71.6
45.9
Performance Avg
66.9
35
Quality of Victory
60
60
Momentum Score
100
Esparza
Weili
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
56%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Esparza
Weili
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Weili
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
13/30 fights
Esparza
Weili
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Esparza
Weili
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Weili
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
EsparzaWeili
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedWeili
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (100% of attacks) — Weili absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Weili targets the body (50% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Weili
0/0R00/0
Esparza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Weili · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Weili · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Tatiana SuarezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Yan XiaonanRating 5.5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Dec · R5
Amanda LemosRating 5.6Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
W · Sub · R2
Carla EsparzaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11