METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
37%
Esparza
63%
Weili
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:05
★ Official Result
Zhang WeiliwinsSubmissionR2 · 1:05
def. Carla Esparza · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Weili
→
Actual result
Weili wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Weili holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Esparza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Weili has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EsparzaWeili
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Esparza
Weili
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'4"
63"
Reach
63"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Esparza
Weili
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
68.9
45.9
Performance Avg
63.3
35
Quality of Victory
54
60
Momentum Score
100
Esparza
Weili
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
5.1
7.7
Style: Volume
6.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Esparza
Weili
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Esparza
Weili
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
13/30 fights
Esparza
Weili
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Esparza
Weili
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Weili
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
EsparzaWeili
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedWeili
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (100% of attacks) — Weili absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Weili targets the body (50% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Weili
0/0R00/0
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasDecision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Weili · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoDecision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Tatiana SuarezDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Yan XiaonanDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Dec · R5
Amanda LemosDecision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
W · Sub · R2
Carla EsparzaSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11