UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
Houston, USA
7 Aug 2021
Flyweight
VS
58%
Kape
42%
Osbourne
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:44
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kape
This is a genuine toss-up — Kape at 58% vs Osbourne at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kape has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Kape has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Osbourne has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kape
Osbourne
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
+73"
32+
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Kape
Osbourne
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.6
51.3
61.4
Performance Avg
43.7
56
Quality of Victory
45
89
Momentum Score
87
Kape
Osbourne
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.1
59%
Strike Accuracy
41%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
9
2
Body
6
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
16Distance18
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Kape
Osbourne
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kape
Osbourne
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
16
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/29 fights
Chin rating based on
14/22 fights
Kape
Osbourne
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
87
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Kape
Osbourne
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
60%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kape
Osbourne
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
KapeOsbourne
Strike Zones
Kape
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedOsbourne
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kape targets the head (74% of attacks) — Osbourne absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Osbourne targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kape absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kape
RND
Osbourne
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kape · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Osbourne · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Kape · Last 5
Upcoming
Kyoji HoriguchiUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 6.9Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Osbourne · Last 5
Upcoming
Cody DurdenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
Upcoming
Alibi IdirisUFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R2
Luis GuruleRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 6.7Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09