UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Las Vegas, USA
18 Dec 2021
Women's Featherweight
VS
43%
Pennington
57%
Chiasson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:07
Raquel
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
16 – 10
5'7"67" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 47
Macy
Macy Chiasson
11 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiasson

This is a genuine toss-up — Pennington at 43% vs Chiasson at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Chiasson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Pennington's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Chiasson has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pennington
Chiasson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
67"
Reach
+72"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pennington
Chiasson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.8
61.5
46.8
Performance Avg
53.0
32
Quality of Victory
50
80
Momentum Score
96
Pennington
Chiasson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
5
9
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance9
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Pennington
Chiasson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pennington
Chiasson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
58
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
14/17 fights
Pennington
Chiasson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
96
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · Sub · R1
Pennington
Chiasson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
23%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pennington
Chiasson
Striking1.4 / 3.6Volume7.5 / 4.1Grappling3.7 / 2.9Wrestling2.6 / 2.0Submission2.3 / 2.5Pressure3.7 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Pennington
Strike Zones
Chiasson
Pennington
Attacking
12HEAD9BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD5BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Chiasson
Attacking
5HEAD5BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD9BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the head (57% of attacks) — Chiasson absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Chiasson targets the head (45% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pennington
RND
Chiasson
0/0R00/0

Pennington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W6.3L5.0W5.6L6.0W4.5W4.5W5.4W5.2L6.7L5.3W5.6L4.5W4.5W6.6W4.5W4.9W5.1W7.0L2013-112016-042019-072022-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Chiasson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W3.3L5.0W4.8L5.0W4.9W5.9L5.6L6.5L2018-112020-022022-092025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Aspen LaddRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Sub · R2
Macy ChiassonRating 6.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

Chiasson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · R2
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 4.9
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Pannie KianzadRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03

News & Media

Raquel Pennington · Macy Chiasson
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