UFC 68: The Uprising
Columbus, USA
3 Mar 2007
Lightweight
VS
87%
Varner
13%
Gilliam
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:34
JV
Jamie Varner
21 – 11
5'8"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
JG
Jason Gilliam
14 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide53 yrsOrthodox6'0"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Varner

Varner is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Varner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.

Varner has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Varner's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Varner
Gilliam
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
41+
Age
53
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Varner
Gilliam
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.9
2.1
41.1
Performance Avg
0.0
46
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Varner
Gilliam
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.6
44%
Strike Accuracy
33%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Varner
Gilliam
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
3.0
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Varner
Gilliam
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
2/23 fights
Varner
Gilliam
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Varner
Gilliam
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Varner
Gilliam
Striking4.0 / 0.0Volume3.3 / 0.0Grappling3.5 / 0.0Wrestling2.4 / 0.0Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure5.7 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Varner
Strike Zones
Gilliam
Varner
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Gilliam
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Varner targets the head (86% of attacks) — Gilliam absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Varner
RND
Gilliam
0/0R00/0

Varner · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.0L5.0W5.5W4.0L4.5W5.5L2.8L1.5L2.7L2006-082012-082014-022014-12
WinLossTrend

Gilliam · QOF Timeline

Avg: 1.5
0101.5L1.5L2007-032007-07
WinLossTrend

Varner · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7
Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12

Gilliam · Last 2

L · Sub · R1
Chris LytleRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07
L · Sub · R1
Jamie VarnerRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 68: The Uprising · 2007-03

News & Media

Jamie Varner · Jason Gilliam
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