METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 68: The Uprising
Columbus, USA
3 Mar 2007
Lightweight
VS
87%
Varner
13%
Gilliam
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:34
★ Official Result
Jamie VarnerwinsSubmissionR1 · 1:34
def. Jason Gilliam · UFC 68: The Uprising
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Varner
→
Actual result
Varner wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Varner is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Varner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.
Risk flags
Varner's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VarnerGilliam
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Varner
Gilliam
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
41+
Age
53
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Varner
Gilliam
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.9
2.1
41.1
Performance Avg
0.0
46
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Varner
Gilliam
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.7
Style: Pressure
0.0
3.3
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Varner
Gilliam
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Varner
Gilliam
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
2/23 fights
Varner
Gilliam
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Varner
Gilliam
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Varner
Gilliam
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
VarnerGilliam
Strike Zones
Varner
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedGilliam
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Varner targets the head (86% of attacks) — Gilliam absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Varner
RND
Gilliam
0/0R00/0
Varner · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberSubmission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseKO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloKO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauDecision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardDecision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
Gilliam · Last 2
L · Sub · R1
Chris LytleSubmission
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07
L · Sub · R1
Jamie VarnerSubmission
UFC 68: The Uprising · 2007-03