METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 68: The Uprising
Columbus, USA
3 Mar 2007
Lightweight
VS
87%
Varner
13%
Gilliam
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:34
★ Official Result
Jamie VarnerwinsSubmissionR1 · 1:34
def. Jason Gilliam · UFC 68: The Uprising
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Varner
→
Actual result
Varner wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Varner is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Varner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.
Varner has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Varner's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VarnerGilliam
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Varner
Gilliam
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
41+
Age
53
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Varner
Gilliam
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.9
2.1
41.1
Performance Avg
0.0
46
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Varner
Gilliam
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
0.6
44%
Strike Accuracy
33%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Varner
Gilliam
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
3.0
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Varner
Gilliam
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
2/23 fights
Varner
Gilliam
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Varner
Gilliam
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Varner
Gilliam
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
VarnerGilliam
Strike Zones
Varner
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedGilliam
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Varner targets the head (86% of attacks) — Gilliam absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Varner
RND
Gilliam
0/0R00/0
Varner · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Gilliam · QOF Timeline
Avg: 1.5WinLossTrend
Varner · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 4.5Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
Gilliam · Last 2
L · Sub · R1
Chris LytleRating 1.5Submission
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07
L · Sub · R1
Jamie VarnerRating 1.5Submission
UFC 68: The Uprising · 2007-03