UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Las Vegas, USA
18 Sept 2021
Lightweight
VS
95%
5%
Jenkins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:35
Rongzhu
Rongzhu
27 – 6
5'9"72" reachOrthodox26 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 44
BJ
Brandon Jenkins
"The Human Highlight Reel"
15 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsSwitch71" reach6'0"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge:

is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.

has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Jenkins has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jenkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
72"+
Reach
71"
26+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Jenkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.3
2.5
40.0
Performance Avg
0.0
33
Quality of Victory
0
50
Momentum Score
0
Jenkins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
0.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
34%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
5
2
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance9
0Clinch0
14Ground0
Jenkins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jenkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
56
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/33 fights
Chin rating based on
2/24 fights
Jenkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Jenkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jenkins
Striking4.3 / 0.0Volume6.3 / 0.0Grappling1.6 / 0.0Wrestling1.1 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Strike Zones
Jenkins
Attacking
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Jenkins
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯 targets the head (90% of attacks) — Jenkins absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Jenkins targets the head (56% of attacks) — absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

RND
Jenkins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

· QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.5W5.3L6.5L5.9W4.5W2021-042021-092022-022024-092025-022025-08
WinLossTrend

Jenkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5L3.8L2021-092022-04
WinLossTrend

· Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kody SteeleRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · R2
Chris PadillaRating 6.5
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · Sub · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · 2022-02
W · KO · R3
Brandon JenkinsRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09

Jenkins · Last 2

L · KO · R2
Drakkar KloseRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
L · KO · R3
RongzhuRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09

News & Media

Rongzhu · Brandon Jenkins
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