UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver
Boston, USA
18 Jan 2015
Featherweight
VS
88%
Rosa
12%
Soriano
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rosa
Rosa is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Striking split: Rosa throws more volume but Soriano connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rosa's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Soriano has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rosa
Soriano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
39
Age
+36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Rosa
Soriano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
2.6
36.3
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
20
Momentum Score
0
Rosa
Soriano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.8
36%
Strike Accuracy
77%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
15
1
Body
4
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
5Distance16
1Clinch7
2Ground1
Rosa
Soriano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rosa
Soriano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
60
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
5/22 fights
Rosa
Soriano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Rosa
Soriano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rosa
Soriano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
RosaSoriano
Strike Zones
Rosa
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedSoriano
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the head (75% of attacks) — Soriano absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Soriano targets the head (63% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rosa
RND
Soriano
0/0R00/0
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Soriano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Rosa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
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L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 5.8Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Justin JaynesRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Darrick MinnerRating 5.5Decision
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Soriano · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Shayilan NuerdanbiekeRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
L · Sub · R2
Christos GiagosRating 2.9Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Sub · R3
Charles RosaRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Chas SkellyRating 5.5Decision
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L · Sub · R2
Tatsuya KawajiriRating 2.8Submission
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