UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Las Vegas, USA
23 Oct 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Costa
48%
Vettori
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Paulo
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16 – 4
6'1"72" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakStriker
CFR 55
Marvin
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide32 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'0"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Costa

This is a genuine toss-up — Costa at 52% vs Vettori at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Costa
Vettori
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
72"
Reach
+74"
35
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Costa
Vettori
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.3
50.2
52.9
Performance Avg
40.0
44
Quality of Victory
31
59
Momentum Score
84
Costa
Vettori
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.4
59%
Strike Accuracy
48%
7.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
27
17
Body
4
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
43Distance30
1Clinch1
1Ground0
Costa
Vettori
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Costa
Vettori
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
19/29 fights
Costa
Vettori
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
84
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Costa
Vettori
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
22%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Costa
Vettori
Striking7.6 / 1.1Volume4.3 / 7.3Grappling0.9 / 3.6Wrestling0.6 / 2.5Submission0.0 / 2.2Pressure6.4 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
Costa
Strike Zones
Vettori
Costa
Attacking
26HEAD17BODY2LEGS45 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD4BODY0LEGS31 absorbed
Vettori
Attacking
27HEAD4BODY0LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD17BODY2LEGS45 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (58% of attacks) — Vettori absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Vettori targets the head (87% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 87% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Costa
RND
Vettori
0/0R00/0

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W3.5L6.3L4.5W6.4L6.6L5.5W7.4W2017-032018-072021-102024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Vettori · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.0W5.5L4.5W6.9L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.4W5.1W6.9L5.5W6.4L5.9W6.5L6.9L6.8L7.1L2016-082019-102021-102025-072025-12
WinLossTrend

Costa · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08

Vettori · Last 5

Upcoming
Ismail Naurdiev
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Brunno FerreiraRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Brendan AllenRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Jared CannonierRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

News & Media

Paulo Costa · Marvin Vettori
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