UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
13 Nov 2021
Welterweight
VS
42%
Baeza
58%
Williams
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:02
Miguel
Miguel Baeza
"Caramel Thunder"
10 – 4
6'2"74" reachOrthodox33 yrs4-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 46
Khaos
Khaos Williams
"The OxFighter"
16 – 5
Striker32 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'0"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Williams

This is a genuine toss-up — Baeza at 42% vs Williams at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Williams throws more volume but Baeza connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Baeza's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Baeza
Williams
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+77"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Baeza
Williams
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.1
63.7
49.0
Performance Avg
54.6
53
Quality of Victory
49
39
Momentum Score
87
Baeza
Williams
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
40%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
0
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Baeza
Williams
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.5
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Baeza
Williams
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
82
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
11/21 fights
Baeza
Williams
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
87
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Baeza
Williams
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
71%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Baeza
Williams
Striking7.5 / 8.4Volume0.9 / 3.6Grappling2.7 / 0.7Wrestling1.9 / 0.5Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure8.3 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.4
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Baeza
Strike Zones
Williams
Baeza
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Williams
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Baeza targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Williams absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Williams targets the head (71% of attacks) — Baeza absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Baeza
RND
Williams
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Baeza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.6W5.4W6.0L5.4L1.5L6.5L2019-102020-112021-112024-06
WinLossTrend

Williams · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.0W6.5W6.1L5.0W6.1W6.4L4.5W5.8W4.5L5.7L5.4W2020-022021-062023-052025-062026-05
WinLossTrend

Baeza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Andre FialhoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
L · KO · R3
Khaos WilliamsRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
W · Sub · R2
Takashi SatoRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11

Williams · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Andreas GustafssonRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · Sub · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · KO · R1
Carlston HarrisRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Miguel Baeza · Khaos Williams
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