UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Glasgow, United Kingdom
16 Jul 2017
Middleweight
VS
46%
Marshman
54%
Janes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JM
Jack Marshman
"The Hammer"
23 – 10
6'0"73" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
RJ
Ryan Janes
10 – 3
Well-Rounded44 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'3"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Janes

This is a genuine toss-up — Marshman at 46% vs Janes at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Janes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Marshman's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Marshman
Janes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+76"
36+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Marshman
Janes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.2
16.8
36.0
Performance Avg
42.5
35
Quality of Victory
38
54
Momentum Score
53
Marshman
Janes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.9
25%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
31
3
Body
6
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
28Distance33
0Clinch7
0Ground0
Marshman
Janes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Marshman
Janes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/33 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Marshman
Janes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
53
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Marshman
Janes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Marshman
Janes
Striking4.1 / 6.0Volume6.1 / 5.0Grappling1.6 / 1.2Wrestling1.1 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Marshman
Strike Zones
Janes
Marshman
Attacking
22HEAD3BODY3LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD6BODY3LEGS40 absorbed
Janes
Attacking
31HEAD6BODY3LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD3BODY3LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Marshman targets the head (79% of attacks) — Janes absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Janes targets the head (78% of attacks) — Marshman absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Marshman
RND
Janes
0/0R00/0

Marshman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.2W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W2.9L6.6L2016-112017-072018-112019-072020-10
WinLossTrend

Janes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W2.6L5.5L5.5W2016-122017-022017-072017-12
WinLossTrend

Marshman · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
L · Sub · R1
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 2.9
Submission
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
John PhillipsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
L · Dec · R3
Karl RobersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
L · Sub · R1
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10

Janes · Last 4

W · KO · R3
Andrew SanchezRating 5.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Jack MarshmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
L · Sub · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Keith BerishRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12

News & Media

Jack Marshman · Ryan Janes
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